Eliciting Sets of Acceptable Gambles — The CWI World Cup Competition

Elicitation When uncertainties are elicited from experts, they are typically quantified as probabilities. Eliciting probabilities directly from domain experts as precise numbers is often problematic due to a lack of familiarity with probability theory and the absence of a concrete context. Moreover, even some of the most ardent ‘precise’ probabilists agree that imprecise-probabilistic techniques are better suited to deal with the results of an elicitation procedure (O’Hagan & Oakley 2004, Sec. 3.3). Sets of acceptable gambles form a representation for imprecise probabilities that is close to human behavior and eliciting them directly may improve the quality of the resulting uncertainty model.